Aryna Sabalenka will officially become the year-end WTA No. 1 when the new rankings are released after Iga Swiatek was defeated at the 2024 WTA Finals.
Sabalenka was in pole position to end 2024 at No. 1 heading into the year-end tournament. Swiatek trailed her rival by over 1,000 points before the event began on Sunday.
Three weeks ago, Swiatek became the seventh woman in tennis history to have multiple spells of 50 weeks or more at No. 1, having reclaimed the top spot from Sabalenka at last year's WTA Finals.
Swiatek's time at No. 1 ended controversially the following week. The WTA penalized her and Sabalenka for not playing at least six 500-level tournaments in 2024, which is mandatory for top players.
That led to both women having the points from their lowest-earning tournaments this season removed. Swiatek lost 120 more points than Sabalenka, allowing the Belarusian to overtake her at No. 1.
The four-time French Open champion then dropped the points she earned from winning last year's WTA Finals in Cancun, Mexico, and was also penalized once again by the same WTA rule about mandatory WTA 500 tournaments.
That put Sabalenka in a very strong position to finish 2024 as the world No. 1. This year's Australian Open and US Open champion knew that three victories in the round-robin stage at the WTA Finals would be enough regardless of what Swiatek did.
Sabalenka started strongly by defeating Qinwen Zheng and Jasmine Paolini in straight sets, leaving the 26-year-old tantalizingly close to becoming the year-end No. 1 for the first time in her career.
Swiatek knew she had to beat Coco Gauff on Wednesday to keep her hopes of overtaking Sabalenka alive. She had a dominant 11-1 head-to-head record against the American heading into the match.
However, Gauff superbly turned the tables on Swiatek, beating her 6-3, 6-4. The 20-year-old hit a number of double faults, but her game during the rallies was so good that it did not matter in the end.
Sabalenka had been open about her desire to finish as the year-end No. 1, calling it a significant goal on multiple occasions. Being leapfrogged by Swiatek at last year's WTA Finals probably made her even more determined to achieve it.
The three-time Grand Slam champion currently sits on 9416 points in the live WTA rankings. Swiatek is more than 1,200 points behind her hard-hitting rival on 8170 points.
Although Sabalenka will finish 2024 at No. 1, the rest of the WTA Finals could be crucial in determining how long she stays at the top because the Belarusian defends a large number of points at the Australian Open in January.
She is guaranteed to qualify for the semifinals of the WTA Finals but will earn another 200 points by defeating the already-eliminated Elena Rybakina in her last round-robin match. The Kazakhstani still hopes she can make it difficult for her, though.
Going all the way and winning the WTA Finals would extend her lead at No. 1 even further, as would Swiatek being eliminated by losing her final round-robin match against Jessica Pegula on Friday.