Iga Swiatek is one match away from another Madrid Open final, and between her and that is Madison Keys, who is playing really well.
Who might win this match is a really good question because, on the one hand, there is the world number one, who is arguably still the best player in the world, and on the other hand, there is Keys, who keeps finding ways to win matches against all odds.
Swiatek has been really good this week, winning most matches comfortably. We haven't seen her best tennis so far, but she didn't need to show that.
Keys has certainly played some of the best tennis she's played this year. Her wins over Coco Gauff and Ons Jabeur were quite impressive, especially since they were comebacks.
Swiatek and Keys played three times so far and Swiatek won two of those. The most recent meeting happened at the 2022 Cincinnati Open, where the American beat her opponent. The others were easy wins for Swiatek, including the one on clay in Rome, which she won in two sets.
Stylistically, it's a matchup that heavily favors Swiatek, but that doesn't mean she'll always win. Keys is a streaky player, and if she finds her best tennis, then she can win this match.
That's the story because that's how streaky players work. Swiatek is far more stable from the baseline, and that's how she generally wins these matchups.
| Iga Swiatek | Madison Keys | |
| 2 | H2H | 1 |
| 1 | Rank | 20 |
| 22 | Age | 29 |
| 30-4 | 2024 W/L | 7-3 |
| 311-70 | Career W/L | 367-210 |
For me, this one is rather simple. Yes, Keys could technically win, but I'd be pretty shocked if she actually won this match. Swiatek is better, and that's why she will win this match in two sets.
Prediction: Iga Swiatek to win in two sets.