How Sabalenka Can Wrestle Number One Ranking Away From Swiatek Before US Open

08/08/2023 11:45 | by Nurein Ahmed

Iga Swiatek kicks off her 71st consecutive week atop of the WTA rankings, which takes her to 10th spot among players with the most weeks at number one.

However, for the first time since she rose to number one, Swiatek is sitting precariously on her perch as Belarus' Aryna Sabalenka is breathing down her neck, looking to pounce. Twice this season, Sabalenka has come close, most recently at Wimbledon, where all she needed was two wins to dethrone the Pole.

But now that is in the distant past, Sabalenka is eyeing the future, which is the North American hard court swing. Both Swiatek and Sabalenka are in Canada this week, looking to get some much-needed momentum before the final major of the season.

Swiatek currently tops the charts with 9,490 points. Sabalenka sits in second spot with 8,746 points, representing a gap of 744 points ahead of the Canadian Open in Montreal.

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Can Sabalenka Become No. 1 After Montreal?

Short answer, yes, it is possible, but the ball is in Swiatek's court.

There is an asterisk here. Results in Toronto and Cincinnati last season were Swiatek's 18th and 19th best results of the last 52 weeks, which actually means they are currently not counted on her ranking. But the Pole needs to make the quarterfinals or better in order to gain more points from both tournaments (lost in the round of 16 in both).

So Sabalenka needs to win the title in Montreal and hope Swiatek doesn't make the quarterfinals. Sabalenka can only get a maximum of 9,541 points, and if Swiatek loses before the last eight in Canada, she'd be stuck at 9,490 - it's the only scenario where Sabalenka can become number one, so it's not entirely in her hands.

What Sabalenka Needs To Get No. 1 Ranking Before US Open?

The barest minimum for Aryna Sabalenka is that she must win the title in Montreal. And considering Sabalenka defends Cincinnati semifinal points from last year, she'd also probably need to win in Ohio as well. Winning both events would put Sabalenka on 10,091 points, but it may not be enough.

The only way Swiatek cannot better her points total is if she doesn't win Canada and loses in the quarterfinals stage or before that in Cincinnati, as she would have 10,030 points.

Here are the tabulated scenarios of the number one ranking on the WTA Tour before the US Open. While it is a longshot for the Belarusian, it is still mathematically possible she could overturn Swiatek's lead.

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