Coco Gauff returned to the China Open and started with a win, but she will face Katie Boulter already in the third round.
The American player had a very rough summer, with some inconsistent performances all the way to the US Open. That event, in particular, was upsetting for the 20-year-old because she was the defending champion and failed to play remotely as well as she did last year.
Quite a few things happened after that, including a coaching change. She parted ways with Brad Gilbert, under whom she found her peak tennis last year, and hired a new coach, Matt Daly, ahead of the China Open.
She then made a return to the tennis courts and won the match against Clara Burel 7-5, 6-3, even though it wasn't the cleanest performance. She had some problems but still managed to win.
Her next challenge will be Boulter, a far tougher opponent and also a player who has played at a really solid level so far this year. Boulter started her China Open campaign with an important win over Taylor Townsend, 6-4, 6-4. She's a skillful player from the baseline, which could give Gauff some problems.
Gauff and Boulter have played two times so far, and both have one win. The match Boulter won happened in Melbourne in 2021, and she won the match in three sets.
Their more recent match happened last year in Montreal, and Gauff won comfortably in two sets. In general, it's an interesting matchup, but it largely depends on what type of court they play on.
If it's a quick court, then Boulter has the advantage due to her power and serve. She generally can hurt Gauff more in quicker conditions, and that's what happened in Melbourne in 2021.
When the conditions are slower, Gauff has time to frustrate Boulter and force her into errors. If the ball bounces high, that's another factor that helps the 20-year-old disarm Boulter in what she does well.
That's exactly how the courts at the China Open play because they are a bit slower, and the ball bounces relatively high. That is why Gauff made the semi-final at the event last year. The courts play far better for her than for Boulter, and it's why she's heavily favored to win once more.
| Coco Gauff | Katie Boulter | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | H2H | 1 |
| 6 | Rank | 34 |
| 20 | Age | 28 |
| 40-14 | 2024 W/L | 28-16 |
| 215-96 | Career W/L | 314-197 |
Gauff is the far better player. Although she hasn't played well lately or isn't playing at a really high level right now, the matchup does favor her, and with the conditions also favoring her, there is a very good chance that she will win this match relatively comfortably.
There might be a way for Boulter to win this match, but she will need to hit the ball really well, which will be challenging for her in these conditions. She'll need to hit multiple great shots in a row to hit through her opponent, and that might be a challenge.
Prediction: Coco Gauff to win in two sets.