The 2024 China Open final is the one fans hoped to see, as Jannik Sinner will face Carlos Alcaraz in what is expected to be one of the matches of the year.
Besides just getting two of the best players in a final of an ATP 500 event against each other, the conditions in Beijing also favor an epic match because they're slow and bouncy, which means that most rallies will develop beyond a few shots.
Both are tremendous shot-makers, but even they can't easily hit a winner on the court in the Chinese capital. That promises to make this a fantastic match, especially since both have played extremely well.
Alcaraz has played better at the event, even though it doesn't mean much. Sinner had minor issues in most of his matches, including the semi-final against Bu, but he's the World No. 1 player for a reason.
He also barely lost on hard courts this year, totaling only two losses so far, one of which was against Alcaraz in Indian Wells, a court that resembles the one in Beijing.
Alcaraz wasn't perfect at this event, but he continued playing as well as he did at the Laver Cup, and he's inching closer to his peak level. With that in mind, the matchup has yielded some surprising results in the past, so there is always a chance this match might turn out differently than expected.
Alcaraz and Sinner have already played nine matches, which is why most tennis fans consider this the rivalry of the future. Some of those matches were utterly spectacular, such as their US Open meeting in 2022, while others yielded surprising results that nobody saw coming.
The Spaniard has been slightly better so far, as he leads the H2H 5-4, but it's very close. They contested two matches this year, and both were won by Alcaraz.
In Indian Wells, Alcaraz became the first player to beat Sinner in 2024, while at Roland Garros, he beat Sinner in a five-setter to later claim his fourth Grand Slam trophy.
Sinner's last win over Alcaraz came last year in Beijing when he bested him 7-6(4), 6-1. It wasn’t the best match from the Spaniard, who played bad tennis at this time last year.
He's been playing far better this year, and it's why he will be slightly favored to win the trophy this year. He's looked much sharper in his matches in Beijing so far and generally seems to favor these conditions a little bit more than Sinner.
If this was a quick hard court, then the Italian would likely have an advantage. On top of that, it's been a full year since Sinner last beat Alcaraz, which is notable as well.
| Carlos Alcaraz | Jannik Sinner | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | H2H | 4 |
| 3 | Rank | 1 |
| 21 | Age | 23 |
| 47-9 | 2024 W/L | 59-5 |
| 202-52 | Career W/L | 249-79 |
Due to how good these two players are, their matchups will always come down to small margins. They can hurt each other in various ways, but considering Alcaraz's form, it's safe to say that he should be able to win this match.
Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz to win in two sets.