After two solid wins in Montreal, Holger Rune will look to keep that going at the 2024 Cincinnati Open against Matteo Berrettini, who is also making a comeback to North American hard-court events.
The Dane has had a below-average season for his standards so far, even though his score is 29-16. He is yet to win a trophy, after getting one both in 2022 and 2023. He is a player who went as high as number four in the rankings, and he certainly has high expectations of himself.
He has played consistent tennis in the sense that he wins one or two matches per week and possibly makes a quarter-final, but struggles to get past that stage. Rune dropped out of the Top 10 due to that, and it's not been the type of season that he probably expected to have.
The same could be said for Berrettini, but in recent weeks, the Italian has been turning things around. Missing the start of the year due to more injury woes, he has since picked up quite a lot of steam.
After returning earlier this year at the Phoenix Challenger, he's up to 21 wins with only five losses. His level was high in recent weeks as he won back-to-back titles in Gstaad and Kiztbuhel, winning the second and third trophy overall this year.
He also played in the Stuttgart final on top of that, so when he played, he played at a great level. The Cincinnati Open hasn't been the best place for him, which is a bit uncharacteristic, as it's a fast court that suits his serve.
Three of the four appearances he's had at the event ended in the first round. The same can be said for Rune, who has also moved past the first round only once so far.
The two have played only twice so far, and each has one victory. The first match in Indian Wells in 2022 was won by Berrettini, even though in three sets, while the next meeting at the Mexican Open in Acapulco in 2023 was won by the Danish player.
What these matches tell us is very interesting. On the relatively slow hard court, Berrettini was able to jump ahead. In Acapulco, which is even slower, the Danish player was able to get the win, and neither court is similar to the one in Cincinnati.
That court is fairly faster overall, which should benefit Berrettini's serve. On the other hand, Rune's hitting will benefit from it as well, provided he shows up at his good level.
Berrettini can be attacked on a faster court, although he's good at using his slice to wiggle himself out of tough spots. If he adds the serve to it, he will be tricky to beat. Rune will need to outhit him in the rallies to stand a chance, and he might do it.
| Holger Rune | Matteo Berrettini | |
| 1 | H2H | 1 |
| 17 | Rank | 41 |
| 21 | Age | 28 |
| 29-16 | 2024 W/L | 21-5 |
| 123-78 | Career W/L | 177-91 |
One thing that is certain is that it will be a close match. Three sets are not out of the question, with Rune holding a small edge. His hitting fits better in Cincinnati if he finds it on that day.
Prediction: Holger Rune to win in three sets.