Carlos Alcaraz will begin his 2024 Indian Wells title defense with a match against Matteo Arnaldi, with whom he has played before.
The Italian is a very interesting player who rose last year with solid performances across several surfaces. He plays a very aggressive style that can work really well in Indian Wells, especially with these slow conditions.
The big challenge for Alcaraz will be to avoid giving Arnaldi too many chances while using his own. It's going to be a very interesting match between two players who like to compete and who are young and eager to win.
Obviously, this isn't the first time we're seeing this matchup, as they played at last year's US Open. The conditions there were quite different from those in Indian Wells, and Alcaraz was able to win that match in straight sets.
He might win even easier at the first ATP Masters 1000 tournament of the season than at the Flushing Meadows because I think it plays a bit better for him than at the US Open. It's pretty slow, so he'll have plenty of time to unload his forehand, and it's pretty high-bouncing, which will suit his speed.
Obviously, that works for Arnaldi as well, so he'll really minimize any chances the Italian gets. You don't want to give him confidence, so he blasts many winners.
Alcaraz recently played an exhibition against Rafael Nadal and looked pretty healthy. That's good news in light of his ankle injury, but we'll see what that looks like in a proper competitive match.
He won comfortably at the event last year, which shows how much he enjoys playing here, so anything but his win would be quite strange. I do think he gets this done, albeit in three sets.
Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz to win in three sets.