Carlos Alcaraz will face Daniil Medvedev in the 2024 China Open semi-final, which is a very interesting matchup that could yield some spectacular tennis.
The Spaniard has beaten and overwhelmed Medvedev quite a few times in the past. However, the Russian handed Alcaraz one of the most painful defeats of his life at the 2023 US Open.
It was a match in which Alcaraz lost the plot completely, which he admitted to after the match. It's also a match that taught him quite a bit, and ever since then, he's had a good time against Medvedev.
The Russian is a tricky matchup because he plays a certain way. The best way to beat him is to simply take it to him. Both Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have proved to be tough matchups for him recently because both are capable of hitting through him.
The problem can be if they can't hit through because he forces his opponents to hit more than a few balls. Alcaraz has found an antidote to that recently, and he's been in really strong form recently.
His performances so far in Beijing have been exceptional. Medvedev has looked good as well, but overall, the 21-year-old has looked far better in recent weeks.
The matchup so far has yielded seven matches, and Alcaraz has won five of them. Three of those happened on hard courts, and the H2H on the hard courts shows 2-1 for the Spaniard.
Medvedev's only win was at the US Open in 2023. The other two matches were played at Indian Wells, and both were won by Alcaraz, rather easily. This court in China looks very similar to that in Indian Wells.
It's not as slow and not as bouncy, but it plays more similar to that than the courts at the US Open. Technically, that should mean that it should benefit Alcaraz a bit more, but this matchup is more than just the type of courts they play on.
There is more nuance to that, but overall the Spaniard is heavily favored for a reason. It's a combination of being a better fit on a court like this and generally just playing better in recent weeks.
When it comes to the performance in Beijing, both have been solid, but Alcaraz does command more trust due to how recent weeks have unfolded.
| Carlos Alcaraz | Daniil Medvedev | |
| 5 | H2H | 2 |
| 3 | Rank | 5 |
| 21 | Age | 28 |
| 46-9 | 2024 W/L | 42-16 |
| 201-52 | Career W/L | 375-152 |
As for the match itself, it will come down to how Alcaraz approaches it. If he approaches it like the last three matches they played, he'll win. If he plays remotely close to his best, he will win.
If he allows himself to get nervous, as he did in the 2023 US Open final, he could lose the match. Still, as the more aggressive baseliner, Alcaraz is likely to win the match because it is on his racket.
Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz to win in two sets.